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Cowboys vs Giants : The Cowboys are off from their needed bye week and should be well rested as they head back to MetLife Stadium, the spot where this team played its worst game of the season.
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A loss to the Jets stung the Cowboys, but they at least recovered to beat the Eagles the next week and get into the bye week with a 4-3 record.
Now, they face a Giants team they beat 35-17 in Week 1 but things should look different this team with the Giants making a change at quarterback.
Predicting Week 9 fantasy football sleepers based on latest NFL betting line movement, With sports betting growing in popularity, line movement trends continue to provide predictability for fantasy football. Watching line shift throughout the week often points to players in key spots for fantasy football. With that said, here are a few line movement trends that could lead to fantasy sleepers in Week 9.
2019 Week 9 NFL picks against the spread and analysis. The NFL picks market is full of small sample sizes. Often, we see the majority of NFL bettors decide their picks against the spread based on what they saw the previous week. Seeing as how the NFL is riddled with small samples, it’s easy to fall prey to recency bias.
So how can we distance ourselves from the pack and make smart wagers? By determining which teams might have gotten lucky by using regression to the mean in some statistical areas. I’ll attempt to pinpoint teams who are worth a play and those who are worth a fade in the sports betting market going forward. Using these analytical metrics, we can put together our 2019 Week 9 NFL picks against the spread.
Week 8 was a welcome break-even week for me. We won a ham sandwich, as the bookmakers like to say. Breaking even isn’t my goal at all, but it is far better than the abysmal performances I have put together the past several weeks.
You can read about all of our successes and failures in the Sheep Report. Let’s recap our losses before we move on to Week 9.
The ghosts must have followed Sam Darnold to Jacksonville, as after a brilliant first drive, the Jaguars defense gave Darnold hell. I thought the spread was inflated due to their blow out loss against New England on Monday Night. Maybe it was, but it didn’t matter. The Jacksonville defensive line harassed Darnold all afternoon, which was the defining factor in this game. I don’t foresee myself placing American dollars on Adam Gase again any time soon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game was a tough one to lose. Tampa Bay out-gained the Titans in yards per play but was done in by untimely turnovers (surprise) and a blown call by the referees, which would have given them the lead with a little over three minutes to go. I’ll never make an excuse or blame the refs for my losses, but it was objectively the wrong call, which cost the Buccaneers a lead with three minutes to go in the game. We are going back to them this week, however. I’m a glutton for punishment.
I hopped on the low point of this total amidst wind concerns Sunday morning. I also expected the Bills defense to show up, but neither of those angles came to fruition. I deserve to lose for overreacting to a weather report on a game that garnered zero interest from myself. The wind is the only weather element that matters in football, and even then, it can be overrated.
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I feel pretty good about this slate of games, which is never a good thing for sports bettors. That said, we have some angles we can attack and spots which provide value for us. Without further ado, let’s get to the picks!
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Halfway through the season, and we’ve seen our fair share of upsets around the league. That trend should continue in NFL Week 9.
Looking at the point spreads for the weekend’s action, we’re pinpointing six teams on upset alert. Starting with the London game, these are the games that have us thinking the underdogs are ready to eat.
Houston Texans (-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston’s defense lost its leader last weekend. Now without J.J. Watt, this already struggling defense is going to have its hands full with opposing offenses the rest of the season. Minshew Mania descends upon London Sunday morning and the Texans will have a hard time keeping their opponent off the board in this overseas thriller.
On the other side, Deshaun Watson has been incredible this season but has also had a couple of pretty glaring stinkers against the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs (quite recently, at that). Jacksonville’s defensive front can bring the pressure, and the Texans, who could be without both starting tackles, struggle to keep good pass rushers from wreaking havoc in the backfield.
A team that struggled offensively for most of the season is suddenly scoring points now that Ryan Tannehill has replaced Marcus Mariota. Tennessee won its last two games, and Tannehill has impressed leading the way with 505 passing yards, five touchdowns and just one interception. Carolina’s defense will represent a new challenge for the former first-rounder, which is why the Panthers are favored to win.
However, the Panthers are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season in San Francisco. Kyle Allen threw three picks and was sacked seven times. While Tennessee doesn’t bring quite that level of defensive potency, the defense is playing very well and can bring pressure. It’s going to be fascinating to see how Allen rebounds, especially in light of the latest details on Cam Newton.
Okay sure. The Dolphins are really bad. Like, cover your eyes bad. They struggle to run the ball and will even more so after trading Kenyan Drake to Arizona. That creates even more of an issue for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co. to overcome.
But there are two significant reasons to doubt the Jets this weekend. First, nearly half the team is listed on the injury report. That’s not hyperbole, folks. This team is banged up with a capital B.
Secondly, Sam Darnold is having a hell of a time right now. The second-year quarterback threw just two touchdowns and seven interceptions in his last two games. Miami’s defense showed signs of life in the first quarter against Pittsburgh on Monday night. An effort similar to that could spark a huge upset for the winless Fins.
Fans could be in for quite an offensive showdown in Oakland this Sunday as Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr duel it out against defenses that struggle against the pass.
The reason we’re high on the Lions this weekend is that Stafford is playing out of his mind lately. The former No. 1 overall pick is playing perhaps the best football of his career and is coming off a two-game stretch that saw him pass for 706 yards and seven touchdowns. Oakland’s secondary is not good, and the Raiders struggle to create pressure, too. This sets up for a huge afternoon for Stafford against the Raiders.
This game could get very ugly. The Colts will be without star receiver T.Y. Hilton this Sunday, and likely for weeks afterward. Meanwhile, the Steelers are likely going to be without star running back James Conner and backup Benny Snell has been ruled out.
Without a strong rushing attack, it’s easy to assume Mason Rudolph will struggle with consistency in the passing game. That seems to tilt the game in Indy’s favor. However, the Steelers are very dangerous defensively. They’re at home, and without Hilton in the lineup, Jacoby Brissett could be in for a tough afternoon at Heinz Field.
Of course, all of this is moot if the Colts can run through Pittsburgh’s defense. Though, the Steelers are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry and have given up just four rushing scores all season.
Another game that could spiral into the “unwatchable” category, Cleveland vs. Denver is a difficult game to call.
After placing Joe Flacco on injured reserve, the Broncos will be rolling with Brandon Allen under center. He has zero experience at the NFL level outside of preseason games. An offense that struggles to protect its quarterback and just lost its best receiver to the 49ers, will seemingly be hard-pressed to make anything happen in the passing game.